Bush tried to appeal to voters on the issues of previous election cycles when his ideas about education reform, immigration moderation, and a tough interventionist foreign policy were in vogue. But in a year in which Republicans wanted an outsider who rejected establishment conventional wisdom about everything and would fight Democrats tooth and nail by fair means or foul, Bush was an obsolete political model.

Warren runs the same risk. Democrats may be just as receptive to her anti-Wall Street demagoguery as they would have been in 2016, and like her willingness to mix it up with Trump. But it’s just as likely that the key to victory in 2020 for Democrats will be not so much her brand of hard-line leftist economics as someone with the charisma that can mobilize Democratic voters.

Moreover, candidates who can appeal to minority voters — the key to the Democratic base — better than Warren, such as Sen. Kamala Harris or Beto O’Rourke (although his claims to Hispanic identity are as tenuous as Warren’s to membership in the Cherokee tribe), may be a better bet to energize the party. Worse, just as Bush seemed too tame to battle the Democrats, the combative Warren may have already failed the one test her party faithful will require its nominee to pass: the ability to withstand Trump’s abuse.