The complete destruction of the physical caliphate of the Islamic State is within reach, and Iran remains the focus of allied efforts in the region. The Trump Doctrine, in my view, is not “Fortress America” but “Fortresses American.” Just like Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan, Al Asad Airbase in Iraq will soon become a pivot point for the support of our crucial allies throughout the region — a role already played by Bahrain, where the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is headquartered. Iran is rapidly losing its ability to invest great sums of money and men in Syria and Lebanon, and its cratering economy creates a stark backdrop against which all those prior investments were made. The Iranian people know sanctions relief went to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah, not them. That’s a domestic powder keg for an aging Mullahcracy.
The new entente among Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and — crucially — Iraq is holding. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who also enjoys the confidence of the president, is swinging through the region to consult with the leadership of his entente even as Bolton makes stops in Israel and Turkey. The relationship with the latter is fraught. Our NATO ally is unjustly and unwisely holding an American hostage, Houston physicist Serkan Golge, just as it did Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was finally freed late last year. Releasing Golge would be a second major step toward easing tensions after the Brunson release. The third would be intense talks about the Kurds and our reluctance to allow our longtime allies to be slaughtered. Talks between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bolton on Tuesday could be of enormous significance in solving the Rubik’s Cube of Syria.
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