Nearly 6 out of 10 Americans think the economy is growing now, including 84% of Republicans, 47% of independents, and 36% of Democrats.

But more than 8 out of 10 Democrats and 6 out of 10 independents think a recession is likely during the next year.

Republicans are more evenly divided, but slightly more than half think a recession is likely.

The bottom line: If a recession does come, it could be mild, as Axios’ Felix Salmon and Courtenay Brown have written. But it would take away the benefits of a booming economy that helped Trump during his first 2 years.