Trump's favorite pollster was the least accurate in the midterms

Rasmussen’s final poll was the least accurate of any of the 32 polls. They had the Republicans ahead nationally by one point. Democrats are currently winning the national House vote by 8.6 points. That’s an error of nearly 10 points.

Of course, it’s possible for any pollster to have one inaccurate poll. Fortunately, for statistical purposes, Rasmussen released three generic ballot polls in the final three weeks of the 2018 campaign.

The average Rasmussen poll had Democrats ahead by 1.7 points on the generic ballot. That’s an underestimation of their eventual position of nearly 7 points. This made Rasmussen’s average poll more inaccurate than any other pollster.

Looking at all pollsters, the average poll hit the mark nearly perfectly.