Trump should have a 70% chance of winning in 2020

3. The Future of White Identity Politics is complicated.

Trump won in 2016 with explicit appeals to white identity politics. He needs to again win the majority of white voters in 2020. However, there are signs that he does not have this portion of the electorate locked down.

College-educated white women, in particular, are the Republican Achilles’ heel. In 2016, Trump won white voters overall but lost college-educated white women by 7 points. In 2018, congressional Republicans lost college-educated white women by 20 points. With these women representing one-sixth of the electorate, Trump needs to break even here while rolling up large margins with other white voters in order to win.