In some respects, Trump’s problems in Texas are similar to the difficulties he faces nationally: college educated white women moving decisively to the left and the continued erosion of Republican support in fast-growing metropolitan counties.
The biggest warning signal for Trump in once bright red Texas is the clear disenchantment with hard-right conservatives that a segment of Republican voters feel. These are the conservatives most closely tied to Trump in both substance and style.
If Texas were to become a battleground state in 2020, the national political consequences would be hard to overestimate. Not only are its 38 Electoral College votes second in number only to California’s 55, but for a Democratic presidential candidate, winning Texas would, in effect, neutralize such adverse developments as, say, combined losses in Ohio and Michigan or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.