Looking back at the 2016 electoral map, let’s say Trump keeps Florida and Ohio, which seem to be moving from classic swing states to ones that tip toward Republicans. That still wouldn’t be enough to get him over the top. He would have to hang on to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan — all states that he won by less than 1 point and where Democrats defeated Republicans during the midterm elections. In each state, exit polls showed a majority of voters disapproved of Trump.
It also doesn’t seem likely that Trump’s brand of populism will help him flip states such as Colorado and Virginia, once Republican states that changing demographics converted to purple and that may be drifting blue — especially if Republicans’ dismal performance in the suburbs continues.
It’s hard to see who emerges from a crowded Democratic field, but remember, Bill Clinton was polling at under 2 percent at the start of the 1992 cycle. At the time, former President George H.W. Bush was seen as so formidable, that there was even a famous “Saturday Night Live” sketch featuring a mock debate of Democrats arguing over which one of them would be the guy to lose to Bush. We all know how that turned out.