In 2016, Donald Trump shocked many political observers by knocking down parts of the “Blue Wall”—his close victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan—and winning in swing states like Ohio and Iowa. But in 2018, Democratic statewide candidates did a lot better than Hillary Clinton: incumbent Democratic Senators won re-election in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and Democratic gubernatorial candidates won in every state except Ohio.

That’s probably going to leave a lot of election watchers wondering whether these super important swing-y states are Actually Still Blue or if they’re Really Red Now.

I think this question is a lot more complicated than most people think, and there are a lot of ways to attack it. I’m going to look into the urban/rural divide, talk through how good/bad the results were for each party in each state and then think through what it might mean for 2020 and beyond.