Take the Midwestern battleground states that Trump easily carried back in 2016. This year, Democratic gubernatorial candidates Fred Hubbell in Iowa and Richard Cordray in Ohio didn’t get the same fawning national media attention that Gillum, Abrams or Beto got. They weren’t going to make history. They didn’t make viral Instagram videos. They didn’t get Oprah or DJ Khaled to campaign with/for them. Even so, their losses were another reminder of the difficult path Democrats have in winning midwestern states that were once considered true toss-up territory.

We don’t have an answer yet on Arizona, but the closeness of that Senate race — combined with the Florida and Georgia results — was also a reality check for how challenging a 2020 “Sun Belt” strategy for Democrats could look like. To be sure, Democrats came very, very close to winning (and may still end up winning) – in states that Clinton did not. But, it wasn’t a sweep. And, it wasn’t decisive.

Even so, if we were to project the statewide results onto an Electoral College model, Democrats strong showings in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan would be enough to make up for losses in Ohio, Iowa, Arizona and Florida.