3. Democrats may have lost the Senate until 2022.
If GOP leads in Arizona and Florida hold, Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats. That’s three more seats than the GOP holds now, and it may be enough to insulate the party against Democratic attacks in the next election.
The 2018 map was awful for Democrats — 10 incumbents running in states Trump carried in 2016, including five by double-digit margins — and while the 2020 map is better, there are few slam dunks for the party.
First, Democrats will struggle to hold Alabama Sen. Doug Jones’ seat. Jones, who won a special election last year against an extremely flawed GOP candidate, will have to choose whether to seek a full term in a state Trump carried with 62 percent of the vote in 2016.
If Democrats lose the Alabama seat, they’ll need to pick up five seats to flip the chamber (six if they don’t win the presidency). It’s hard to find that many solid opportunities on the 2020 map. The only Republicans up for reelection in states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 are Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine. Democrats could also target Sens. David Perdue (R-Ga.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) — but those are more difficult.