While the results will be give Democrats hope of wresting back the White House, history warns against over-interpreting them. President Barack Obama won those Rust Belt and Midwestern states in 2008. Two years later, Democrats suffered crushing defeats there, losing governor’s races in all three states plus Ohio, but Obama rebounded and won them again in 2012. Can Trump achieve the same feat?

Victories by progressive Democrats and a record number of women suggest that voters aren’t satisfied with the direction of the government and of the country, said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “People responded to Donald Trump for change, and now they’re responding to the women for change and in 2020 they’ll vote for change again,” she said.

For Democratic voters likely to face a large and diverse field of presidential candidates in 2020, a central question is which one of them can resurrect the vaunted Midwestern “blue wall” that Trump cracked in 2016. The question looms larger after Democrats suffered stinging disappointments in Florida — a perennial swing state rich with electoral votes in presidential elections — in races for Senate and governor on Tuesday.