Take Republican incumbent Keith Rothfus. He won election in 2012 in Pennsylvania’s current 12th district outside Pittsburgh, which includes some staunch Republican strongholds. The 56-year-old attorney was reelected twice by constituents who favored Trump by over 20 percentage points in 2016.
But redistricting has forced Rothfus into a new 17th district, where only 36 percent of voters are Republicans and nearly half are Democrats.
Opinion polls now show Rothfus trailing moderate Democrat Conor Lamb, a 34-year-old former Marine who gained political stardom by winning a special House election in a solidly Republican district last spring. Lamb has support from more than half of likely voters.
The change in Democratic fortunes increases the party’s hopes of making the net gain of 23 seats it needs to control the House and stall much of Trump’s agenda. Republicans are favored to hold the Senate.
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