Dems in prime position to take House, but battleground district poll shows wild cards remain

Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50 percent of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46 percent support the Republican.

The Democrats’ four-point edge represents a superficial advantage with Republicans, given the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. Still, the finding marks a sharp turn from 2016, when voters in these districts backed Republicans by a margin of 15 percentage points. With 63 of the battleground districts held by Republicans, that kind of shift in sentiment would be sufficient for Democrats to take control of the House. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to win the majority…

Women continue to be key to Democratic hopes on Tuesday. White women with college degrees, a high-turnout group, currently favor Democratic House candidates by a 26-point margin, 62 percent to 36 percent. Along with nonwhite women, they contribute to a 12-point Democratic advantage among women overall, 54 percent to 42 percent. Republicans fare better among white women without college degrees, leading 55 percent to 42 percent. And Republicans have a slight three-point edge among men, 50 percent to 47 percent.

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