Democrats match or exceed Republicans on turnout indicators

Republicans typically enjoy a comfortable lead over Democrats in giving “quite a lot of thought” to midterm elections — a key historical Gallup indicator of turnout propensity. But that GOP advantage is not evident this year, as 55% of Republicans vs. 62% of Democrats say they have given the election quite a lot of thought.

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In fact, Republicans’ seven-percentage-point deficit in thought represents the only time they have trailed Democrats on Gallup’s final pre-election reading of this measure in midterm years dating back to 1994.

Before now, in all but one year, Republicans have led by six to 12 percentage points. The only exception was 2006 — a strong Democratic year — when the Republicans had a mere two-point edge.

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