Who’s voting early? Mostly people who would have voted anyway

TargetSmart breaks the voter universe into four groups, defined here. The top 20 percent of most-frequent voters are dubbed “super voters.” Those who fall somewhere in the middle are “frequent.” If you’ve voted once, “infrequent.” And then there are those who’ve never voted at all.

In every state for which there are data, save one, at least three-quarters of the ballots cast came from voters in one of the the first two, more heavily voting categories, according to TargetSmart’s analysis. (The exception was New York, and it missed the mark by only about a percentage point. In most of the states, at least 40 percent of votes cast came from “super voters.” In three states, half did.)