In a weird reversal of 2012, when conservatives were trumpeting national polls showing Romney ahead and were getting yelled at by liberals citing state-level polls, liberal journalists are citing national “generic” polls (the ones that ask if you’d vote for a Democrat or Republican) to support their case that Democrats are in fine shape, while Republicans are citing specific state-level polls as evidence of their revival.
One thing that may have blinded everyone to the possibility of a GOP revitalization was the phenomenon of double-counting. Throughout the Kavanaugh controversy we were told it would be deadly for Republicans among suburban women voters they need to avoid being blown out in November.
But given the reduction in the number of Republican voters since the 2016 election, it’s very likely those suburban women have already switched sides to join the Democrats or have withdrawn from politics altogether this year. The Republican suburban women left are likely socially conservative and pro-life — and Kavanaugh would have made them more enthusiastic about voting GOP rather than less.