The vote on Brett Kavanaugh is likely to be taken this weekend. But, the impact of the battle over his confirmation is likely to have short and long-term consequences.
As for the short term, the consensus seems to be building among both Democratic and Republican strategists that this fight is not good for Democrats currently holding — or candidates hoping to win — red districts or states. And, while the issue should help Democrats to solidify the gains they’ve made with women in the so-called professional suburbs, it’s not clear that it’s doing anything to motivate the young and Latino voters they need to win in South Texas, Los Angeles County or Florida.
Recent polling by the New York Times Upshot/Siena College found Kavanaugh’s support to be lower in suburban districts where Trump is already very unpopular, but higher in districts where Trump has higher approval ratings. For example, polling taken late last week/early this week (9/29-10/2) in the suburban Twin Cities (MN-02), pegged Trump’s job approval at 38 percent and support for Kavanaugh at 43 percent. Democratic nominee Angie Craig is leading GOP Rep. Jason Lewis 51 percent to 39 percent.