The president’s party almost always suffers a net loss of U.S. House seats in midterm elections. However, losses tend to be much steeper when the president is unpopular. In Gallup’s polling history, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats, on average, in midterm elections. That compares with an average loss of 14 seats when presidents had approval ratings above 50%.

History, then, is not on the Republicans’ side this fall, as President Donald Trump has a 40% job approval rating two months before the 2018 midterm elections. With Republicans holding the White House and the majority of both houses of Congress, the lines of accountability are clear for voters who are unhappy with the state of the nation. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take majority control of the House of Representatives.