Over more than half a century, there have only been two midterm elections where a post-Labor Day event changed the dynamics of the overall race. In both cases, these involved weighty historical events and Republicans were marginally hurt. One was in 1974, when President Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon for crimes related to the Watergate scandal. The other was the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.
An international crisis is possible, especially if Trump seeks to create a distraction from his own scandals. Whether real or manufactured, Trump would be called upon to handle it with the same skill President John F. Kennedy displayed during the Cuban nuclear confrontation in the Cold War. That’s far-fetched.
The 2018 do-nothing Congress still has a month to go. House Republican leaders want to pass a few spending bills and get out by early October so endangered incumbents can campaign. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell will probably keep the Senate in session for most of October to inhibit Democratic incumbents from spending more time on the campaign trail and to force votes on federal judicial nominations.
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