Against someone like Graham, in a year like this, it would be very difficult for DeSantis to win. Graham likely retains at least some residual goodwill among northern Floridians and would be poised to run up the score in the suburban areas of Florida. But Democrats instead nominated Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. Gillum, who is African-American, was endorsed by Bernie Sanders in the primary and is firmly in the left wing of his party. Gillum endorsed Sanders’ Medicare-for-all proposal, supports a repeal of Florida’s “stand your ground” law, has called for the impeachment of Trump, and favors abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Many of those positions involve federal laws over which Gillum would have minimal input, but they give a flavor for his ideological positioning.
This scrambles the coalitions in unpredictable ways. Gillum will likely benefit from enhanced African-American turnout, although it isn’t clear that Kendrick Meek’s historic candidacy for the Senate in 2010 resulted in substantially higher black turnout. At the same time, however poorly one believes Graham would have run in northern Florida, it seems a safe bet that Gillum will run worse.
As for the rest of the state, it is something of the immovable object against the irresistible force.
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