These Democratic defections in the Maryland governor race offer a cautionary sign to the party, betting that a crop of true-blue progressives can win pivotal gubernatorial contests across the country. Democrats attribute Hogan’s lead to his widespread popularity and independent profile, and now believe that this race was near-impossible to win from the start. But the Republican Governors Association spent more than $2 million on ads attacking Jealous over his liberal policy positions, suggesting they didn’t view this race as a foregone conclusion. And Jealous’ underwater image—33 percent view him favorably, 34 percent unfavorably, according to an August Gonzales Research survey—show those criticisms have been brutally effective. (Also worth noting: Maryland has only reelected a Republican governor once in its history, and Hogan is running in a very rough environment for the GOP.)

The public’s willingness to embrace progressivism will be tested in at least three other pivotal governor’s races in November. In an upset, Florida Democrats nominated Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, another Bernie Sanders ally who would be the first African-American governor of the state. In Arizona, Democrats chose David Garcia, an educator vying to be the first Hispanic governor in over 40 years and whose immigration views are well to the left of typical statewide candidates. And in Georgia, former state legislative leader Stacey Abrams has become a national icon for her strategy of reaching out to new voters instead of relying on persuading suburbanites. In all these races, Democrats are hoping to change the electorate with a message that rallies liberal nonwhite voters to the polls even if it risks losing some typical swing voters.