How much trouble is Ted Cruz really in?

The August polling averages were off by between 5 points and 14 points in any given year. On average since 1990, they were off by about 8 points.

Of course, that error could cut either way — it doesn’t necessarily favor Cruz. The senator leads by 3 points, on average, in polls taken this month. If this year’s polls are off by that average amount — about 8 points — then we really shouldn’t be surprised by anything from Cruz winning by 11 points to O’Rourke winning by 5. And even that understates how wide the range of possible outcomes still is — that’s just what could happen if the polls are off by the average amount. Who’s to say polls won’t be off by 14 points like they were in 1990 and 1994?