If Washington truly believes that a new wave of protest in Russia means that the regime is about to buckle, it misunderstands the mood of the country. Serious protests, like the ones that followed Putin’s reelection in 2011, break out in Russia when times seem good and change feels possible. When things are hard and the regime intransigent, barring total collapse—a nightmare scenario almost beyond possibility—most people focus on the demands of daily life rather than on politics. Sure, Russians are complaining about the proposed pension reforms, but this is nothing compared to the protests the regime faced down in 2011 and 2012, when people could still believe that maybe their rallies and marches might make a real difference.

Besides: Who will they blame for their day-to-day troubles? Paradoxically, the World Cup—an event that left many visitors with a much more positive image of Russia—worked both ways. Accustomed to a steady diet of alarmist xenophobia on television (which is controlled almost entirely by the government), Russians had a chance to see foreigners as people just like them. Approval of the United States rose from 20 percent in May to 42 percent in July.