Why Roe v. Wade is likely not in grave danger no matter whom Trump nominates

A judge with a mind to overrule Roe would have to confront not only Roe itself, but also its subsequent reaffirmation, including that in Casey. Of course, one criticism of Casey was that it paradoxically “overruled” Roe by substantially changing its framework, but then “affirmed” Roe … after arguably overruling it.

Another consideration is this: The court will be reluctant to take away a constitutional privacy right, even if that right was granted with dubious reasoning. If Roe were being decided for the first time by the new court, a conservative majority could easily decline to recognize a new privacy right. However, taking away an already granted, substantially relied-upon right is much harder for the court to do.

The bottom line: Even if a case addressing Roe and Casey quickly wends its way up to the Supreme Court, it does not mean they will be overruled. The court’s decision should not be a show of hands: Those personally for abortion versus those personally against it.