U.S. allies are ready to turn their backs on Trump at the G7 summit

Donald Trump made his mark in the cutthroat world of New York real estate the way a tough-minded poker player bullies those at the table with less money to spend. He played as if he had bottomless pockets. The guy who is not afraid to lose a few hands likes to push the stakes, to go all in and to dare those across the table to accept more risk by staying in the game. With that strategy, he won many hands without always holding the best cards or sitting on a fat wallet.

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As President, Trump brought this strategy to the table with South Korea and Brazil. When he made trade threats, the governments of those countries knew they could bring the U.S. before the World Trade Organization and (probably) win. But that would take years, and their economies would suffer much damage in the meantime. Instead, they cut deals. And so they figured: Give the bully some of what he wants and maybe he’ll turn his attention toward someone else. (The renegotiation of NAFTA may eventually end in the same fashion.)

But there are limits to this strategy. What happens when someone calls Trump’s bluff? If Kim Jong Un steps into the white-hot spotlight that follows Trump and offers him something tomorrow but nothing today, what does Trump do about it? Launch a strike that risks a war? Call him names? Threaten tariffs on China so it puts more pressure on North Korea?

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