The good news for Republicans is that these districts look less Democratic than they did in November 2016. Hillary Clinton outpolled Donald Trump in all seven districts then, but this time Republican candidates got combined majorities of 53 percent to 63 percent in six of the seven. And in the seventh, the total Democratic lead was just 51 percent to 48 percent.
More good news for Republicans: They won’t suffer from a lockout in the top statewide race, as in 2016, but will have a candidate contesting the governorship. John Cox will be on the ballot this November. And although there’s time for opinion to shift, past jungle primary results in California, Washington and Louisiana have been good indicators of the vote in November.
Issues can make a difference too. Voters in the intersection of Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties overwhelmingly (by an 18-point margin) recalled a Democratic state senator who had voted for a gas tax increase, and installed a Republican in his place. In the overlapping 39th Congressional District, vacated by veteran Republican Ed Royce and considered a prime target by Democrats, Republicans outpolled Democrats by a ten-point margin.