When Trump should start worrying about a 2020 primary challenger

Trump’s standing in the party now: When congressional Republicans defend controversial things Trump does or says, political analysts (myself included) often explain the logic behind the officials’ actions by noting that Trump has rock-solid support among self-identified Republican voters, close to 90 percent in some surveys. Many congressional Republicans, particularly those who are seeking re-election, have every incentive not to criticize the president, at least according to his raw approval ratings in the party.

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But these numbers, particularly the Morning Consult/Politico survey, suggest a diversity of GOP opinion about the president that is perhaps not captured by the approval question. If a third of Republicans want someone else to run in the primary against the president, that’s less-than-ironclad backing.

Similarly, a Pew Research Center poll released this week found that 63 percent of Republicans who live in urban areas have warm views of Trump, compared to 25 percent who have cold views. (Respondents were asked to rate him on a “feelings thermometer.”) But in rural areas, 71 percent of Republicans had warm views of Trump, compared to 18 percent with cold views. So that data reinforces the idea that there is some weakness in Trump’s backing among Republicans and helps locate where it is — cities. SurveyMonkey polls put Trump’s approval rating at above 90 percent among self-described conservative Republicans, but below 80 among moderate and liberal Republicans. And Trump is more popular among older Republicans than younger ones.

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