What do we know with just under six months to go to the midterms?

Intensity in opposition to the president – as measured by ‘strong disapproval’ – continues to remain higher than the ‘strong approval’ ratings for Trump.

However, there are some signs that GOP voters may be catching up with Democrats on the measure of intensity. Well-respected GOP pollster David Winston (an expert on all things House), wrote recently: “New surveys — private and media polls — seem to show that the enthusiasm gap, which has plagued the Republican base for the past year, might, at last, be closing. In our April 28-30 Winning the Issues survey, we asked voters to tell us how likely they are to vote in November on a 1-9 scale, with 1 meaning a voter was not planning on going to the polls and 9 meaning they absolutely would. What we found was good news for Republicans. Both parties are at parity when it comes to self-reported likelihood of voting. Conservative Republicans came in at 8.22 with Republicans overall at 8.16. Democrats, whose enthusiasm for voting had previously topped Republicans, are now at 8.12, with liberal Democrats at 8.20.”

Part of the reason for the increase in enthusiasm is the fact that Republicans now have something around which to rally – specifically an improved economy and tax cut law. It also helps that the president and the GOP-controlled Congress are not currently at war with one another as they were during the health care debate. Back then, congressional Republicans not only lacked substantive accomplishments, but the president was actively calling them out on Twitter as incompetent.