The geographic concentration inherent to the new Democratic coalition can also be appreciated by looking at the growing role California has played in the party’s coalition in the past century. Wilson in 1916, Truman in 1948, Jimmy Carter in 1980, John Kerry in 2004, and Hillary Clinton in 2016 all won roughly the same share of the vote (48–50 percent). California accounted for 5 percent of Wilson’s nationwide vote; 8 percent of Truman’s vote; 9 percent of Carter’s vote; 11 percent of Kerry’s vote; and 13 percent of Clinton’s vote. That is a big increase in the relative importance of a single state. Yet California has added no additional Senate seats, and the concentration of the Democratic vote in the Golden State leaves the party vulnerable to narrow defeats in the Midwest.

All in all, the collapse of the Democratic farmer–labor coalition, and the rise of the new upscale–minority coalition, has resulted in Republicans now enjoying a noticeable edge in securing an Electoral College majority, and a huge advantage in winning a Senate majority.

I think this is why many on the Left are riled up about the Electoral College and the Senate. The structural biases of these institutions have long been noticed by just about everybody who cared to study the matter but are only recently being felt by Democrats.