The Cohen investigation is the real investigation, and Trump's in peril

In the earlier column, I observed that it would be outrageous to raid a lawyer’s premises if the only “crime” under investigation were a campaign-finance infraction — which is generally treated as a civil-law issue for the Federal Election Commission to sort out. I would feel the same way if it were essentially a campaign-law no-no inflated into an alleged bank fraud by some, shall we say, prosecutorial creativity (a euphemism for stretching the penal law to capture erstwhile innocent behavior).

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That, however, is not what’s going on here — or, at least, I don’t think it is all that is going on here.

I believe that the government is investigating whether there was, in connection with Trump’s White House bid, a conspiracy to commit fraud and extortion for the purpose of silencing potentially compromising sources — specifically, people in a position to portray Donald Trump as a womanizer. Clearly, the prosecutors regard Trump and Cohen as potential co-conspirators. That does not mean a conspiracy will be proven, but the possibility is certainly being scrutinized. Here, it is important to bear in mind a distinction from the Russia investigation: This is not a counterintelligence matter; the SDNY is unquestionably conducting a criminal investigation, and a federal judge would not have authorized search warrants absent finding probable cause that federal crimes may have been committed.

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