The Cohen investigation is the real investigation, and Trump's in peril

In the earlier column, I observed that it would be outrageous to raid a lawyer’s premises if the only “crime” under investigation were a campaign-finance infraction — which is generally treated as a civil-law issue for the Federal Election Commission to sort out. I would feel the same way if it were essentially a campaign-law no-no inflated into an alleged bank fraud by some, shall we say, prosecutorial creativity (a euphemism for stretching the penal law to capture erstwhile innocent behavior).

That, however, is not what’s going on here — or, at least, I don’t think it is all that is going on here.

I believe that the government is investigating whether there was, in connection with Trump’s White House bid, a conspiracy to commit fraud and extortion for the purpose of silencing potentially compromising sources — specifically, people in a position to portray Donald Trump as a womanizer. Clearly, the prosecutors regard Trump and Cohen as potential co-conspirators. That does not mean a conspiracy will be proven, but the possibility is certainly being scrutinized. Here, it is important to bear in mind a distinction from the Russia investigation: This is not a counterintelligence matter; the SDNY is unquestionably conducting a criminal investigation, and a federal judge would not have authorized search warrants absent finding probable cause that federal crimes may have been committed.