So the bluff is really just his extreme, gambler’s negotiating style: Make a maximalist ask, frame the debate around that, and go from there, improvising all the way.

It worked sometimes in his business career but it also failed a bunch, most spectacularly in Atlantic City when his casinos went bust and he temporarily gave his life over to his creditors.

It’s too early in his presidency to tell definitively whether his negotiating tactics will work in international relations.

As Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer points out, Trump has already gotten some concessions out of the Chinese and South Koreans, so the approach hasn’t been a total failure.

A source close to Trump tells us: “Being a ‘bluffer’ only works when you have a history of actually following through. Trump has followed through on his threats enough that it’s impossible to determine what he’s really thinking.”