Instead, in order to bring Trump and the House along, the Senate would likely have to put together a bill that drew a more balanced coalition. Such legislation would likely be opposed by Republicans like Cotton (who would feel it does not have enough immigration limits) but also liberal Democrats like California’s Kamala Harris (who would feel it includes too many more conservative provisions).

Who would vote in favor of this kind of compromise? Probably Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine of Virginia but also Republicans like Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander and Missouri’s Roy Blunt, all of whom backed the budget deal. Those four are not leading figures in either party on immigration policy but rather veteran politicians who might be willing to vote for some kind of compromise on this issue.

In the House, getting to a majority of Republicans (so about 120) means getting support for the bill beyond the most liberal Republicans, or the 23 electorally vulnerable Republicans representing districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Getting something like 67 Democrats (the number who voted for the government funding bill last week) requires Democratic support beyond the 12 members who represent districts that Trump won.