Voters are skeptical of the GOP tax bill overall, not just whether they’ll get a cut

However, most voters don’t expect a tax cut. A Monmouth University poll released this week found that just 14 percent of voters expect their federal taxes to go down, as compared to 50 percent who expect an increase. Once those misinformed voters realize that less is being withheld from their paychecks as a result of the lower tax rates, they’ll come around to supporting the bill, right?

Well, maybe not. For one thing, the voters aren’t necessarily wrong, even in a literal sense, if they’re looking toward the long term.2 Because the cuts to individual tax rates are temporary, 53 percent of households (including 70 percent of households in the middle income quintile) will see an increase in their taxes by 2027 if the law is left intact, according to the Tax Policy Center, as compared to 25 percent who will see a decrease.

But more importantly, voters probably aren’t being quite so single- and literal-minded about whether or not they’re getting a tax cut. Instead, they’re using polling questions like these to signal their overall skepticism and discomfort with the bill — discomfort that also registers when they’re asked other questions about the bill that have nothing to do with their personal finances.