Trump’s refusal to embrace the norms of presidential behavior will hurt his party

This is a model that Barack Obama expertly fit into, which is impressive considering that he also pushed the boundaries of presidential exposure. He was more available than past presidents were, as a kind of celebrity-in-chief, but he generally did a good job of maintaining this image of statesmanship. His personal favorability numbers remained strong during his term, even when his job-approval numbers fell. People were comfortable with him as “the president.”

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The discomfort level with Trump, on the other hand, is so great that his numbers have fallen among Republicans, despite a decent record of policy victories. His refusal to behave how people expect the president to behave has come to dominate most aspects of the public discourse, and not in a good way for Republicans.

And make no mistake: If the GOP enters the 2018 midterm with Trump’s job approval mired in the mid 30s, it will be a “Katie Bar the Door” type of election. We saw a hint of this in Virginia, where Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie massively underperformed relative to his previous run for the Senate. Some Republican voters will stay home. Others will cast a protest vote for the Democratic party. This could have huge consequences for Republicans’ standing in the House of Representatives, for the organization of the GOP electorate is such that a lot of districts are something like 55 to 60 percent Republican. This helps pad the party’s majority when it is reasonably popular, but if the party loses even a small share of its voters to Democrats, it could result in a massive wave.

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