The Republican Party, despite controlling all branches of government for close to a year, finds itself in the puzzling position of desperately trying to pass a tax package that no one quite loves. But seeing that plan become law is a far better scenario than another one White House allies and Republicans are fretting over: What happens to President Donald Trump if the tax plan doesn’t pass?

That’s not the only existential question facing the White House in December. Trump and Congressional Republicans also face a real risk of a government shutdown once funding expires on Dec. 8, something unprecedented in Washington when one party controls all three branches of government. And there’s a genuine chance Republicans’ slight majority in the Senate becomes razor-thin after Alabama’s Dec. 12 special election, where what should be a surefire Republican seat is in jeopardy following allegations of sexual impropriety against Roy Moore.

Tax reform failing would alone render Trump’s first year an abject failure, leaving him with no landmark legislative achievements despite campaign promises to upend Washington. But a shutdown could even further wound Trump’s relationships on the Hill, and a Moore loss would be a blow to any potential for year two, deteriorating an already tenuous Senate GOP majority, which as is has scuttled the promise of major legislation like repealing and replacing Obamacare.