Could the flow of migrants to Europe be stopped?

Flows across the central Mediterranean from Libya to Italy plunged in mid-July after Italian authorities struck an unusual deal with local Libyan militias to clamp down on people smuggling. But smaller routes have experienced an uptick, with traffic from Morocco to Spain steadily increasing, and more people undertaking the perilous Black Sea passage from Turkey to Romania.

The surges do not seem to be directly related to the Libyan clampdown, but they are illustrative of migrants’ tendency to find new paths to Europe as old ones close, officials and analysts say.

“These flows aren’t necessarily the same people, but they do demonstrate that the migration routes and flows are constantly shifting,” said Elizabeth Collett, director of the Migration Policy Institute Europe, a think tank.