The summer months — when waters are warmer and travel conditions are more auspicious — typically preside over spikes in the numbers of migrants and asylum seekers who make the often dangerous journey to Europe. In the past, the increase in traffic has usually been accompanied by a concomitant increase in fatalities en route, mostly to do with capsized boats and the lack of safety precautions taken by people smugglers.

Not so in August 2017, the data suggest. While the comparable lack of fatalities last month does not follow the figures for the rest of the year to date — during which more than 2,400 migrants have died in the Mediterranean so far — these recent figures do suggest that the terms of a scenario that has long confounded European politicians may be changing.