Even if Arpaio has a shot at getting past Flake, Jensen said, the former sheriff would have little chance after that.

“Given Maricopa County’s firm rejection of him in the general last year and what a huge chunk of the statewide vote is cast there, I think it’s a safe bet he would lose, probably badly, in a general election for the Senate,” Jensen said.

“I think between Flake’s unpopularity, the B team of possible primary challengers to him, and the overall political climate, Democrats are more likely than not going to pick up the seat next year.”