But then we get into his reelection hopes. Assuming Trump plans to run again in 2020, ditching the GOP officially would mean he would have to run in what would likely be a three-way contest — a three-way contest that would risk creating chasms in the Republican Party and giving Democrats a much easier path to victory. That would seem to work against both his and the party’s interests in a big way.
“If Trump were to leave the party, the immediate impact would be very problematic for fundraising efforts at the RNC — and dry up his fundraising for his super PAC,” said one national GOP operative granted anonymity for a candid take.
Another GOP consultant said, while he viewed this situation as unlikely, it would be “cataclysmic” and would split the party in three. “Thirty percent would be pissed as hell and mad at him, 30 percent would go with him,” and the rest would be up for grabs, the consultant said.