Gambling on a shutdown over the wall is an easy choice for Trump. He has absolutely nothing to lose and the reputations of his Republican enemies to destroy. In the long term, though, it’s unlikely to make a difference. Trump, having made his point, will equivocate once more on what the meaning of “wall” is and agree to sign off on a few billion dollars for additional fencing and the hiring of ICE personnel. In a press conference, perhaps with a freshly pardoned Sheriff Joe Arpaio by his side, he will announce that the wall is finally being built, “big beautiful door” and all. And he will make it clear that these randomly distributed symbolic 35-foot pieces of concrete or barbed wire are all his, exactly what he fought for all along, the greatest wall in the history of walls, like you wouldn’t believe.

Meanwhile, for a day or two until the shutdown is resolved McConnell and Ryan will not be able to answer their constituents’ questions about why they did not initially support the president’s wall. But the same people will vote for them anyway.