Neither Trump nor Kim is crazy, political rhetoric notwithstanding. Trump has, on occasion, spoken movingly about the power of nuclear weapons and the influence of his uncle, who was a professor of engineering at MIT. A younger Trump even spent a period lobbying in the media for an appointment by Reagan to replace Paul Nitze in negotiating an arms agreement with the Soviets. As for Kim, he wants to save his skin — he sees nuclear weapons as a guarantor of his survival, not a route to suicide.
And yet, for deterrence to fail, neither Trump nor Kim have to be insane or suicidal. They merely have to be the flawed human beings that we all are. North Korea has made it clear that it will use nuclear weapons first against U.S. forces throughout South Korea and Japan if it thinks an invasion is coming, in a desperate effort to stave off the overwhelming power of the United States. Trump has talked about killing Kim and seems to be willing to improvise nuclear threats with little or no discussion. I don’t think Trump or Kim wants a nuclear war, but I do think they could blunder their way into one, with each giving the other the impression that war is coming, and with military advisers who will argue that it is better to go first rather than risk not going at all.
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