Sending weapons to Kiev makes no more sense today than it did two years ago. You may recall the last time “arming Ukraine” was floated. In 2015, fearing a Western-backed putsch would permanently pull the country from Russia’s sphere of influence, Vladimir Putin took a gamble to preserve the Kremlin’s access to the Black Sea Fleet and annexed Crimea. Contrary to popular perception, this was not a demonstration of Kremlin strength, but a last resort. A truly strong Russia would have been able to keep Kiev under its influence and preserve its access to the Black Sea without force. In fact, in 2010 Putin used his popularity in Ukraine and Russia’s diplomatic might to help his preferred candidate, the fantastically corrupt grifter, Viktor Yanukovych, over the line in presidential elections.
Ukraine is a deeply divided country. Its most-recent presidential elections revealed a stark conflict between the agrarian, Ukrainian-speaking north and west on one hand and the Russian-speaking south and east on the other. It is also not a particularly admirable state. Successive governments in Kiev have turned out to be ineffective and/or hopelessly corrupt. Even the Western-supported Viktor Yushchenko arguably usurped the role of Ukraine’s courts when dissolving Parliament in 2007. This is not a stable democracy.
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