The Gallup numbers include a big warning sign for Trump in states that have long been among the reddest parts of the Republican coalition, Texas, Arizona and Georgia. Republican presidential candidates have won all those states in every election since 2000. In each one Trump is at least 7 points underwater and his job disapproval number is at 50 percent or more.
These are remarkable figures when you compare them to the approval numbers out of Ohio and Iowa. The Republican president is doing worse in these solid southern and southwestern states than he is in the Midwestern battlegrounds.
So what’s happening here? These states are growing rapidly and diversifying racially and ethnically. The white non-Hispanic population of each is 55 percent or less, compared to a national figure of 61 percent. In Ohio and Iowa the white, non-Hispanic population is above 80 percent.