Leaked CBO numbers: 73% of GOP "coverage losses" caused by individual mandate repeal

As you can see in the above chart, two factors—repealing Obamacare’s individual mandate and the CBO’s outdated March 2016 baseline—explain nearly all of the CBO-scored coverage difference between GOP bills and Obamacare.

It’s why the various Senate tweaks to the Better Care Reconciliation Act—repealing fewer of Obamacare’s tax hikes, say, or throwing $45 billion at opioid addiction—have no impact on the CBO’s coverage estimates.

Some Republicans advocate starting over and writing an entirely new Obamacare replacement that can get a better CBO score. But any replacement that repeals the individual mandate will be scored by the CBO as covering at least 16 million fewer people—and probably worse.