Another proposed solution to job losses and inequality in the AI future is Universal Basic Income. UBI would provide enough of an allowance to live on—exactly how much would depend on cost of living and what federal budgets would allow. The UBI would not be just for those who have lost their jobs but, as the name suggests, everyone. It has the advantage of being a clean and simple safety net—no means-testing, less paperwork and bureaucratic oversight, low fraud potential—as opposed to our current octopus of benefit programs and government agencies, which is why it appeals to libertarians like Charles Murray. Silicon Valley seems sold on the idea. (See “The Disrupters,” Winter 2017.) In addition to (supposedly) solving the problem of paying for food and shelter, it would give people, in Ezra Klein’s words, “the freedom to turn their passions into their vocations . . . they could be an artist, or a writer, or a Reddit commenter, or a competitive video gamer.”
Maybe some people would find their bliss, but what percentage of them? We already have an unplanned experiment in Eberstadt’s “men without work.” University of Chicago economist Erik Hurst has looked into the question of how those men spend their expanded leisure time. The quick answer is that they spend three-quarters of their time playing video games. (Hurst doesn’t say whether they’re playing “competitively” or not, if that matters.) An unknown number—though surely substantial—are taking opioids. We know from other sources what they are not doing: going to school; living with, providing for, or taking care of their kids. With respect, it’s a good guess that they’re not writing novels, either. The nonworking, prime-age men we know about raise serious, even existential, concerns about what happens when a UBI replaces a paycheck. Would a UBI alter the American psyche in a way that leads to less work, less innovation, and less human motivation and creativity?
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