New White House worry: Base erosion

But the concerns are real: Some White House advisors are worried that if these most intense supporters lose their passion for him, there’ll be no way to regain the energy in time to fight off a fired-up left in 2018.

An evolving line of thinking: Trump will probably never be at 51% approval — the “strongly disapprove” number against him, which is around half the voting public, makes that virtually impossible. The strategy, therefore, has to involve keeping the diehard ginned up and driving up Trump’s “strongly approve” numbers. There’s little hope of converting Democrats — beyond the Midwest working class who already voted for Trump. So it’s crucial to keep a large enough base that’s willing to walk over glass for the President.

The Paris model: A good number in the administration recognize Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris deal as an example of him delivering for his base. Their view: It’s irrelevant that most Americans don’t support withdrawing from Paris because there’s not one person who supports the climate deal — and who actually votes on it — that would ever be persuaded to vote for Trump.