Losing the House is not a preexisting condition for the GOP

Clearly, only a fraction of the 6.3 million people who are potentially at risk would need the help of additional funding through a high-risk pool. Many will be covered by employer plans; others will live in states that have not applied for a waiver from Obamacare rules. Although there is no certainty about how well the funding would match up with the need for additional resources, the situation is far less dire than we have been led to think.

That is not to minimize the personal challenges faced by people with serious health conditions. But from a political perspective, can a group numbering perhaps 1 or 2 million be the cause for Republicans losing the 23-seat advantage they now hold in the House of Representatives?

That would require more than 5 percent of the voters in at least 23 congressional districts to switch sides and vote for the Democratic candidates 16 months from now. In the 2016 elections, there were only 27 seats where Republicans were elected with less than 55 percent of the vote. In only 11 districts did the Republican candidate have less that a 10 percent margin over the Democratic candidate. It’s not impossible for the Democrats to overcome these margins, of course, but the triumphalism of the Democrats and the media on this is clearly only wishful thinking.

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