If health reform makes it to Trump’s desk, it’s unlikely to be before fall. It’ll take up the Senate calendar through the summer, then the conference committee and another floor fight in the House.

For the first time, some key Republicans are pessimistic that tax reform can be finalized this year. It has to come after the 2018 budget (its own sinkhole). So tax reform could get pushed into 2018, and ambitious bills are even harder in an election year since the other side doesn’t want to give the White House a win.

Massive spending for an infrastructure package will be a tough sell with the hardline House Freedom Caucus and some Senate conservatives. So Trump will probably need Ds — tough before midterms.