The vote they won’t get: Susan Collins, who probably won’t vote for eliminating Planned Parenthood funding. Of course, if enough conservatives (think Rand Paul, Mike Lee and Ted Cruz) oppose the Senate bill, this won’t work. Collins told me she “would try to strike any provision that defunded Planned Parenthood,” but added that “it would not be the only thing” she’s considering.

The wild card: Rand Paul. But Republicans can afford to lose two votes, so even if Paul and Collins oppose the bill, it still passes.

Something for conservatives: A senior aide told me it might not be as hard as everyone thinks to win over Lee and Cruz. The plan is to offer them some kind of additional state flexibility. That’s the approach the House took with its latest changes — in the amendment by Rep. Tom MacArthur — and they won the support of some of the most conservative House members.