Were the National Front’s divisions to spill out into the public after May 7, it wouldn’t be the first time this has happened within a far-right party in Europe. Such groups tend to struggle when attempting transition from protest vehicles to parties seeking a role in government; such transitions require expanding the party’s appeal in ways that tend to alienate its base. The leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), Frauke Petry, for instance, recently announced that she would not be her party’s leading candidate in national elections this fall, following months of party infighting over her proposals for relatively pragmatic policies.

Nor would it even be the first time internal splits have roiled the National Front itself. The party has faced more than one such split in its more than 40-year history, the most famous of which was when Bruno Mégret, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s No. 2, left the National Front in 1998 over similar disagreements about the direction of the party. (Mégret found Le Pen’s extremist positions too alienating.)

Should she lose, it’s unlikely that Le Pen’s role as leader of the National Front would be in immediate danger: Unlike the AfD, the National Front has historically been a family dynasty, and there are currently no real challengers who could take her place. “I don’t see a leadership contest in the cards,” said Dorit Geva, an expert on gender and the National Front at Central European University. “She is firmly in charge of the party, with enormous support and legitimacy.” Should she make a strong enough showing, she could emerge from the election more firmly in charge than ever. But should the loss be brutal, it could empower elements within the National Front that had previously been quieted on the promise of electoral victory.